Elon Musk Gives Updates on Mission to Mars.







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all right - I'll block number one and
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I'm gonna talk more about what it takes
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to become multi-planet species and I'm
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just a just a brief refresher on why
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this is important I think fundamentally
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the future is vastly more exciting and
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interesting if we're a spacefaring
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civilization and a multi-planet species
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that if we're not it you want to be
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inspired by things you want to wake up
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in the morning to think the future is
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gonna be great and that's what what
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bring a spacefaring civilization is all
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about it's about believing in the future
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and thinking that the future were better
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than in the past and I can't think of
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anything more exciting than going out
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there and being among the stars that's
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why so becoming it we go into more
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detail and becoming multiplying species
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this is the updated design for the the
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what we were sort of searching for the
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right name but the code name at least is
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bfr and the the the probably the most
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important thing that I want to convey in
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in this presentation is that I think we
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have figured out how to pay for it this
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is very important you know in last
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year's presentation you know we're
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really searching for what the right way
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it you know how do we pay for this thing
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we went through various ideas
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Kickstarter you know collecting
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Underpants these didn't pan out but but
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now we think we think about a way to do
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it which is to have to have a smaller
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vehicle still pretty big but one that
01:54
can serve that we're the one that can do
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everything that's needed in in the
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greater Earth orbit activity so
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essentially we want to make
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our current vehicles redundant we want
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to have one system one ship ones one
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booster and ship that replaces Falcon
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nine Falcon Heavy and Dragon so if we
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can do that then all the resources that
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are used for Falcon 9 heavy and Dragon
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can be applied to this system so that's
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really fundamental so let's see what
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progress have we made in in this in this
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direction its last lesson you saw the
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giant tank that's actually a 12 meter
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tank and you can see the relative scale
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of it it's a thousand cubic meters of
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volume inside that's actually more
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pressurized volume than an a380 just to
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put that into perspective we developed a
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new carbon fiber matrix that's much
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stronger and more capable at higher than
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anything before and it holds 1200 tons
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of liquid oxygen so we we tested it so
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we successfully tested it up to its
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design pressure
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and then when a little further so we
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want to see where it would break and we
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found out we're break it shot about 300
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feet into the air and land on the ocean
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we're fishing it out and but now get a
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pretty good sense of what it takes to
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create a huge carbon-fiber tank that can
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hold cryogenic liquid that's actually
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extremely important for making a light
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spaceship remember the next key element
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is on the engine side we have to have an
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extremely efficient engine so the the
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raptor engine will be the highest thrust
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away engine we believe of having any
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engine of any kind ever made we already
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have now 1200 seconds of firing across
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42 main engine tests we fired it for 100
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seconds it could it could fire for much
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longer than hundred seconds that's just
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the size of the of the test tanks and
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then the duration of the firing you've
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seen right now is this 40 SEC 40 seconds
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which is the length of the firing for
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landing on Mars the the test engine it
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currently operates at 200 atmospheres to
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a toner bar the flight engine will be at
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250 bar and then we believe over time we
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could probably get back to a little over
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300 bar the next key element is
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propulsive landing so in order to land
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on right on face like the moon where
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there is no atmosphere and certainly no
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runways or land on Mars with atmosphere
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is too thin to land on even if there
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were on waste land with with the wing
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you really have to get propelled
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propulsive landing perfect so that's
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what we've been practicing with Falcon 9
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so this is just a series of landing but
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it's like these quite mesmerizing but we
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now have 16 successful landings in a row
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and that's with
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[Applause]
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[Music]
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so the the the the it's six in a row and
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that's with it with with really without
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any redundancy so Falcon nine lands on a
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single-engine the the the final landing
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is always done with with a single-engine
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whereas the West bfr will always have
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multi engine out capability so if you
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can get to a very high reliability with
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even a single engine and then you can
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you can land and then you can land with
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either of two engines I think we can get
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to a landing reliability that is on par
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with the safest commercial airliners so
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you can essentially count on the landing
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it's not like the you want minimum
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pucker factor on landing the Edit land
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is also very high precision in fact we
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believe the precision at this point is
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good enough for propulsive landing that
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we do not need legs for the next version
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it will literally line with so much
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precision it will land back on its
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launch mounts so the see the loss the
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loss rate is also being it has been
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increasing exponentially the particular
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when you take tankini but we're
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refilling on-orbit into account and
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taking the idea of establishing a
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self-sustaining base on Mars or the moon
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or elsewhere seriously you need thousand
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oftenly thousands of ships and tens of
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thousands of ivory ivory tanking or
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refilling operations which means you
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need many launches per day
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the key that you really need to be
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looking at in terms of how many landings
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are occurring you need to look at you
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watch it on your calendar so while this
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is a quite a high launch rate that we're
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talking about here you're by
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conventional standards it's so in a very
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small loss rate compared to what it will
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ultimately be needed but just for those
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who are failure
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how many cobra launches occur every year
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it's approximately approximately 60 over
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launches occur per year which means if
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SpaceX does do something like 30
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launches next year it'll be
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approximately half of all over launches
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that occur on earth the next thing is a
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key technology is automated rendezvous
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and docking so in order to retain or
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refill the spaceship in orbit you have
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to be able to rendezvous and dock with
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the spaceship with very high precision
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and and transfer propellant and so
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that's one of the things that we've
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perfected with with dragon dragon one
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we'll do an automated rendezvous and
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docking without any pilot control to the
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space station
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dragon one currently uses the canadarm2
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before the final placement on to the
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space station dragon 2 which launches
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next year will not need to use the the
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cannot hit our hub so dragon 2 will
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directly dock with the space station and
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I can do so with zero human intervention
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she just press press go and we'll dock
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the dragon is also allowed us to perfect
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heat shield technology so when you enter
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at high velocity
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you'll bet you'll melt almost anything
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the reason the reason meteors don't
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reach Earth is they they mail to
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disintegrate before they reach the
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ground unless they're very big so you
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have to have a sophisticated heat shield
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technology that can withstand
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unbelievably high temperatures and
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that's what we've been perfecting with
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with dragon and also a key part of of
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any planet core lies colonizing system
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excite
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so Falcon 1 this is where we started out
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a lot of people I feel really only heard
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a SpaceX relatively recently so let me
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think
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say Falcon 9 and Dragon just instantly
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appeared and that's how it always was
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but if it wasn't we started off with
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just a few people who really didn't know
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how to make rockets and the the reason
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that I ended up being the chief engineer
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or chief designer there's nothing
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because I wanted to use because I can
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hire anyone that nobody good word join
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so I ended up being that by default and
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I messed up the first three launches the
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first three launches failed
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unfortunately the fourth launch which
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was the that was the last money that we
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had for Falcon 1 the fourth launch
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worked or it would have been that would
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have been it for for SpaceX but fate
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liked us that day so the fourth launch
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worked and it it just think today is the
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is the 9th anniversary of that launch
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[Music]
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I didn't realize that until saying and
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until I was told that just just earlier
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today but it's a very emotional day
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actually so but the point is is there's
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quite a small rocket when you're doing
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Falcon we're really trying to figure out
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what is the smallest useful payload that
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we get to orbit it's like it's something
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around half a ton two orbit would be
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able to launch at you know that launch a
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decent sized small satellite to low
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Earth orbit and that's why we size about
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one but it's it's really quite small
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compared to falcon 9 so Falcon 9
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particularly when you factor in payload
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the Falcon 9 is is many times more it's
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sort of on the order of 30 times a whole
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payload then Falcon 1 a tenth and Falcon
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9 has reuse of the primary booster which
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is the most expensive part of the rocket
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and hopefully soon reefs of the of the
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fairing the big nose cone at the front
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so we think can probably get to
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something like some between seventeen
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eighty percent reusability with the
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Falcon 9 system and then and hopefully
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towards end this year we'll be launching
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Falcon Heavy which is it's something
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have you ended up being a much more
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complex program than we thought it
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sounds easy
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you let your Falcon Heavy actually it's
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it sounds like it should be should be
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easy because it's two first stages of
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Falcon 9's strapped on as brewster's
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it's actually not you have to redesign
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almost everything except the upper stage
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in order to take be increased loads so
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Falcon Heavy ended up being much more a
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new vehicle then we realized so took us
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a lot longer to to get it done but the
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the boosters have all now been
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tested and they're on their way to to
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the Cape Canaveral and we are now
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beginning serious development of VFR so
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you can see the the payload difference
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is quite dramatic
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VFR in you fully reusable configuration
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without any oval refueling we expect to
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have a payload capability of 150 tons to
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low Earth orbit and that compares to
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about 34 for for full Falcon Heavy yeah
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we were just pasta partially reusable
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where this really makes a tremendous
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difference isn't a cost which all come
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since on the latest slides so this is a
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Cisco to the next line and just about it
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by the way if ya so with VFR you can
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give a sense of scale by looking at the
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tiny person there
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it's really quite quite a big vehicle
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main body diameter is about is about
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nine meters or 30 feet and it consists
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of the booster is lifted by 31 wrecker
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engines that produce thrust about 5,400
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tons lifting 40 and 40 400 ton vehicle
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straight up
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so then it's just a bit basics about the
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ship 48 meter blank dry master expecting
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to be about 85 tons I technically I
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design says 75 tons but inevitably this
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mass growth and that ship will contain
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1,100 tons propellant with a design a
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design of 150 tons and return mass of 50
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so you can think of this as essentially
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combining the upper stage of the rocket
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with Dragon it's like the Falcon 9 up a
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stage the dragon were combined
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so as we I'll go into each of these
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irons in detail but you've got the
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engine section on the rear the
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propellant tanks in the middle and then
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a large payload Bay in the front and
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that payload base actually yet at eight
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stories tall in fact you can foot you
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can fit a whole stack of felt floor and
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rockets in the payload Bay and compared
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to the design I showed last time you'll
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see that there is a small delta wing at
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the back of the rocket the reason for
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that is in order to expand the mission
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envelope of the of the bfr spaceship
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depending on whether you're landing or
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you're coming you're entering a planet
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or a moon that has no atmosphere a thin
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atmosphere or a dense atmosphere and
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depending on whether you have your
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you're entering with no no payload in
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the front a small payload or a heavy
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payload you have to balance the rocket
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out as it's coming in and so the delta
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wing at the back which will post which
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also includes a split flap it's a split
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flap for pitch and roll control allows
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us to control the the pitch angle I
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despite having a wide range of payloads
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in the nose and a wide range of
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atmospheric densities
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so we try to avoid having the DeltaWing
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but it was necessary in order to
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generalize the capability of the
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spaceship such that it could land
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anywhere in the solar system just look
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at a couple of things in detail so the
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the the cargo area has a pressurized
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volume of 825 cubic meters
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this also is greater than the
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pressurized area of an a380 so really is
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capable of carrying a tremendous amount
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of payload you know in a mass transit
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configuration since you'd be taking
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three months in a really good scenario
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but maybe as much as six months you some
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number of months singlets england once
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you probably want a cabin not just a
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seat
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so the Mars transit configuration
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consists of 40 cabins and it's one of
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the pans alone you could conceivably
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have five or six people per cabin if you
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really want to crab people in but I
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think mostly we would expect to see two
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to three people per cabin and so
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normally about a hundred people per
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flight to Mars and then there's a
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central storage area galley and galley
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and a solar storm shelter entertainment
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area and I think probably you know a
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good situation for at least B or for
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version one then going to the main body
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of the vehicle the center body area
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this is where the propellant is located
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and this is a sub cooled methane and
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oxygen so as you as you to kill the
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methane and oxygen below its liquid
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point you get a fairly meaningful
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density increase you get on the order of
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10 to 12 percent density increase which
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makes quite a big difference for the
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propellant load so excited up to do to
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carry 2 or 40 tons of ch4 and in our 60
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tons of oxygen the you know in the fuel
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tank our header tanks so when you come
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in for a landing your orientation may
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change quite significantly but you can't
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have the propellant just sloshing around
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all over in main tanks you have to have
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the header tanks that can feed the main
20:12
engines with precision so that's what
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you see the most in the fuel tank then
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the engine section
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so the the the ship engine section
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consists of four rapture had forced ford
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vacuum referendums and to sea level
20:39
engines so the all six engines are
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capable of gambling the engines with the
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high expansion ratio have a relatively
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smaller gimbal area vocal range and a
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slower and it's lower able rates thus
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the two center engines have a very high
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gimbal range and cable very quickly and
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you can land the ship with either one of
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the two center engines so when you come
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in for landing you will like both
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engines but if if one of the center
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engines fails at any point it will bail
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and successfully with the repeat with
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the other engine and then within each
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engine this great tool of redundancy so
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we want the landing risk to be as close
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to zero as possible and there's some
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basic stats about the engines the sea
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level engines around a330 ISPs yield at
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at level the the alpha stage engine is
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375 know this is version one so I think
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over time there's potential to increase
21:51
that specific impulse by five to ten
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seconds and as was mentioning also
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increased the chamber pressure by fifty
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bar or so and then for refilling where
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you just saw the two ships would
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actually mate at the rear section they
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would use the same mating interface that
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they used to connect to the the booster
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on liftoff so we would reuse that mating
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interface and then and reuse the
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propellant flow lines that are used when
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the booster is when the ship is on the
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booster and then to transfer propellant
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it becomes very simple use control
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thrusters to accelerate in the direction
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that you want you empty so so you give
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sorry this direction Phillip L
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propellant goes that way
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you transfer the propellant very easily
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into these from that from the tanker to
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the ship so going to rocket capability
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this gives you sort of a rough sense of
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of rocket capability starting off at the
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low end with the Falcon one and a half
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ton and then going up to be afar at her
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50 so it it's important note that VFR
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has more carefully than 75 even with
23:11
full reusability but but here's the just
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a really really important fundamental
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point let's look at the launch cost
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till the order the order reverses
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[Applause]
23:30
[Music]
23:38
now at first glance this may seem
23:40
ridiculous but but it's not the the same
23:45
is true of aircraft if you want to if
23:48
you if you bought say a a small
23:51
single-engine turboprop aircraft that
23:54
would be one and a half to two million
23:56
dollars to charter a 747 from California
24:03
to Australia is half a million dollars
24:05
there and back the single-engine
24:08
turboprop can't even get to Australia so
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a fully reusable system like this well
24:16
fully reusable giant aircraft like 747
24:19
costs a third as much as an expendable
24:23
tiny aircraft and in one case you have
24:28
to build an attack aircraft the other
24:29
case just have to refuel something so
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it's it's really crazy that we will have
24:35
these sophisticated rockets and then
24:37
crash them every time we fly this is a
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bit mad I so yeah is that that this is
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this is applicant if says how profound
24:51
this is and how important these body is
24:55
yeah and often I'll be told but you get
24:57
more payload if you made it extendable I
25:00
said yes you could also get more payload
25:02
from an aircraft if you better the
25:04
landing gear and the flaps and just
25:06
parachute it out when you got to your
25:08
destination but that would be crazy and
25:11
you would sell 0 aircrafts Surrey's
25:15
abilities absolutely fundamental no no
25:19
no one talked about the value of orbital
25:21
we're filling this is also extremely
25:24
important so if you just fly VFR two
25:29
orbits and don't do any refilling it's
25:34
it's pretty good you'll get 150 tonnes
25:36
slows orbit and have no and have no fuel
25:39
to go anywhere else
25:42
however if you send up tankers and
25:45
refill in orbits you can refill the
25:48
tanks all the way to the top
25:50
and get 150 tons all the way to Mars and
25:56
if the tanker has higher use capability
26:02
then you're just paying for the cost of
26:04
propellant and the cost of oxygen is
26:07
extremely low and the cost of methane is
26:10
extremely low so if that's all you're
26:14
dealing with the cost of retail of
26:17
refilling your spaceship on orbit it is
26:20
tiny and you can get 150 tons all the
26:25
way to Mars
26:27
so we automated rendezvous and docking
26:30
and refilling absolutely fundamental
26:35
so then getting back to the question of
26:37
how do we pay for for this system this
26:43
was really I said of quite a profound I
26:48
don't call it breakthrough but
26:49
realization that if we can build a
26:52
system that cannibalizes our own
26:58
products makes our own products
27:01
redundant then all of the resources
27:04
which are quite enormous that are useful
27:07
fell to nine heavy and Dragon can be
27:09
applied to one system you know some of
27:15
our customers conservative and they want
27:18
to see the they want to see PFR fly
27:21
several times before they're comfortable
27:23
launch a unit so we plan to do is to
27:25
build ahead and have a stock of Falcon 9
27:28
and Dragon vehicles so that customers
27:31
can be comfortable if they want to use
27:33
the old the old rocket the old
27:35
spacecraft they can do that because
27:37
we'll have a bunch in stock but all of
27:39
our resources will then turn towards
27:41
building VFR and and we believe that we
27:45
can do this with the revenue that we
27:47
with with with the revenue we receive
27:50
for launching satellites and for
27:53
servicing the space station so going to
27:57
the satellites portion
27:59
that'd be the size of this being a 9
28:03
meter diameter vehicle it is a huge
28:05
enabler for new satellites we can
28:09
actually send something that is almost
28:13
nine meters in diameter to orbit so for
28:19
example before if you want to a new
28:21
Hubble you could send a mirror that has
28:25
ten times the surface area of the
28:28
current Hubble as a single unit doesn't
28:31
have to unfold or anything and the walls
28:38
or you can send a large number of small
28:39
satellites you do whatever like you can
28:42
actually also go around and if you
28:44
wanted to collect old satellites or
28:45
clean up space debris you just use a
28:48
sort of chopper over there and go around
28:51
and collect collect satellites will
28:54
collect space debris if you want so then
28:58
we hit that may be something we have to
28:59
do in the future but that that fairing
29:03
would open up and retract and then come
29:05
back down so it's it enables launching
29:10
of earth satellites that are
29:12
significantly larger than anything we've
29:13
done before or significally more
29:15
satellites at a time than anything
29:16
that's been done before it's also
29:19
intended to be able to service the space
29:21
station
29:31
I know it looks a little big rose to the
29:33
space station but the shuttle also
29:37
looked big so it'll work looks a little
29:42
odd size but it'll work
29:44
so it's it'll be capable of doing what
29:49
dragon does today in terms of
29:51
transporting cargo and what dragon to
29:54
will do in terms of transporting crew
29:57
and cargo so did the space station
30:00
servicing it can also go up see much
30:03
further than that
30:05
like for example in base the
30:09
calculations we've done we can actually
30:11
do lunar surface missions with no
30:14
propellant production on the surface of
30:16
the Moon so if we do a high elliptic
30:20
parking orbit for the ship and retain in
30:25
a high elliptic orbit we can go all the
30:28
way to the moon and back with no local
30:31
propellant production on the moon so
30:35
they've got that that enabled they were
30:36
enabled the creation of moon base alpha
30:39
or some sort of lunar base
30:44
[Applause]
30:45
[Music]
30:54
yeah quite captivating so the Eagles to
31:01
see for example how do you transfer
31:03
cargo from the cargo bay down to the
31:06
ground is crane so ever it complicated
31:09
and yeah but but since this will enable
31:15
the creation of a lunar base and it's
31:18
2017 I mean we should have a lunar base
31:20
by now what the hell's going on and
31:31
there of course Mars becoming a
31:36
multi-planet species you say how about
31:38
it'd be a nice thing applying species so
31:43
yeah so we'd start off by setting
31:45
Commission to to Mars where it would be
31:48
obviously just landing on rocky ground
31:51
or dusty ground and it's the same
31:55
approach that I mentioned before which
31:57
is you send the spaceship up to over it
31:59
Yury tank it or refill it until it has
32:02
full tanks and it travels to Mars
32:07
lands on Mars for Mars you will need
32:09
local propellant production but Mars has
32:13
a co2 atmosphere and plenty of water ice
32:16
that gives you co2 and h2o so you've got
32:20
you can make therefore ch4 no.2 using
32:25
the Sabatier process and also the you
32:27
know voice paella process and I should
32:32
mention that long term this can also be
32:35
done on earth so as soon as I get some
32:37
sort of criticism for why why using
32:42
combustion and rockets and you have
32:43
electric cars like well it isn't some
32:45
way to make an electric rocket I wish
32:47
there was but in the long term you can
32:51
use solar power to extract co2 from the
32:54
atmosphere combine it with water and
32:56
produce
32:58
fuel and oxygen for the rocket so the
33:00
same thing that we were doing Mars we
33:03
could do on earth in the long term but
33:07
that that's essentially what happens
33:08
similar to to learn you land land on
33:11
Mars but the tricky thing with Mars is
33:13
we do need to build up a propellant
33:15
Depot to refill the tanks and return to
33:19
Earth but because Mars has lower gravity
33:23
than Earth you can you do not need a
33:25
booster so you can go all the way from
33:27
the surface of Mars the surface of Earth
33:29
just using the ship I'll be it you need
33:32
to go for - max payload number of about
33:35
20 - 20 to 50 tons for the return
33:40
journey to work but it's a single saddle
33:42
this is a single stage all the way back
33:43
to earth I'll show you the so this is
33:47
the true physics simulation this lasts
33:54
about a minute so you come in you're
33:57
entering very quickly going seven a half
33:59
kilometres a second for Mars there won't
34:03
be some ablation of the heat shield so
34:05
it's just like a sort of brake pad
34:06
wearing away
34:08
it is a multi-use heat shield but unlike
34:11
for earth operations it's coming in hot
34:15
enough that you really do you will see
34:17
somewhere of the heat shield
34:19
but because Mars has an atmosphere I'll
34:23
be it but a particularly dense one you
34:25
can remove almost all the energy or
34:26
aerodynamically and we've proven out
34:30
supersonic retropropulsion many times
34:32
with with Falcon 9 so you feel record
34:34
about that the this is a because it sort
34:39
of you could see sort of a mesh system
34:44
it's not it's not meant to be sort of
34:45
particularly pretty because it's just
34:47
first if you simulate the physics of it
34:49
but the the size of the current gives
34:51
you a rough approximation for how much
34:53
thrust the engines are producing
35:10
that's not a typo
35:15
although it is aspirational
35:18
[Music]
35:20
so we've already started building the
35:25
system the tooling for the main tanks is
35:32
has been ordered the facility is being
35:35
built we will start construction the
35:38
first ship around the second quarter of
35:42
next year so in about six nine months we
35:45
should start building the first ship I
35:47
feel fairly confident that we can
35:52
complete the ship and be ready for a
35:55
launch in about five years five years
35:57
seems like a long time to me
36:00
[Music]
36:07
and I the the area under the curve of
36:13
resources over that period of time
36:14
should enable this time frame to be met
36:17
but if not this time frame I think
36:19
pretty soon thereafter but that's how
36:22
that's our goal is to try to make the
36:24
2020 to monitor the both was
36:31
synchronization happens roughly every
36:33
two years so every two years there's an
36:35
opportunity for justify to Mars so then
36:41
in 2024 we want to try to fly for ships
36:45
two of which would be crude and to which
36:48
to 2002 to curve the goal of the of
36:55
these initial missions is to is to find
36:57
the best source of water that's for the
36:59
first mission and then the second
37:01
mission the goal is to build the the
37:03
propellant plant so we should with
37:06
particular with six ships there have
37:09
plenty of landed mass to construct the
37:13
propellant Depot which will consist of a
37:16
large array of solar panels very large
37:18
array and then everything necessary to
37:21
mine and refine water and then draw the
37:25
co2 out of the atmosphere and then
37:27
create and store deep fry or ch4 nor to
37:33
then build up the base starting with one
37:37
one ship then multiple ships then start
37:40
building out the city then making the
37:43
city bigger and even bigger
37:50
[Applause]
37:51
[Music]
38:00
and yeah and over time terraforming was
38:05
and making it really a nice place to be
38:11
Thanks
38:18
but this is quite a quite a beautiful
38:21
picture and on the prior slide it's
38:25
nursing you know that on Mars donor desk
38:28
or blue and it's the sky that's the sky
38:31
is blue and or dust and and red during
38:33
the day it's the opposite of Earth and
38:38
but this there's something else if you
38:44
if you build a ship that's capable of
38:46
going to Mars
38:50
what if you take that same ship and go
38:54
from one place to another on earth so we
38:57
look at that and the results are quite
39:01
interesting let's take a look at that
39:11
[Music]
39:15
Mountain sir
39:20
so the the the great thing about going
39:23
to space is there's no friction so once
39:27
you're out of the atmosphere you will go
39:29
away smooth as silk
39:30
no turbans nothing there's no weather so
39:33
mr. Hapsburg and you can get to it most
39:38
long-distance places like I said in less
39:39
than half an hour
39:41
and if we're building this thing to go
39:44
to the Moon and Mars then why not go to
39:47
other places on earth as well all right
39:49
thank you
39:51
[Music]

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